Most points in Mexico are won or lost in the auction. Play the cards perfectly after a reckless bid and you still fall; bid too timidly and you hand the contract to an opponent who scores with cards you could have used. This article is about turning ten cards into one honest number.
What a bid really promises
A bid is a promise to take at least that many of the ten tricks with the trump you are about to choose. The detail that changes everything: a made bid scores the tricks you actually take, not the number you bid. Bid 6 and take 8, and you write down 8. Bid 8 and take 8, and you also write down 8.
So a high bid earns nothing extra. It only raises the bar you must clear. The right bid is the lowest one that wins the auction, as long as it stays inside what your hand can deliver. If an opponent says 6 and you are sure of eight tricks, say 7, not 8: you will score the same eight points and leave yourself a trick of room.
Rule one. Decide your limit before the auction starts, then bid one step at a time. Never jump higher than you need to win the contract.
Counting your tricks
You cannot know exactly how the other twenty cards lie, but you can estimate. A simple count that works for most hands:
- Pick the likely trump. Usually your longest suit. Keep in mind that you choose trump only after seeing the talon, so a close call between two suits can still change.
- Count trump tricks. Start with the number of trumps you hold and take one off for each of the ace and king of trumps you are missing. Five trumps headed by the ace and king are worth about five tricks; four trumps without either are worth about two.
- Add side aces. An ace in a side suit is almost always a trick. Ace and king in the same side suit are two, as long as the suit is not so long that someone can cut the second round.
- Add half for a guarded king. A side king with one or two small cards wins a trick about half the time. A bare king is usually worth nothing: it falls under the ace.
- Add cuts carefully. A void or a singleton in a side suit lets you cut with trump, but only with trumps you do not need for drawing the opponents’ trumps. With four trumps, count no extra cuts.
The total is your realistic trick count. Your limit is that number, perhaps one more if the talon is likely to help and the scoring is forgiving.
What the numbers say
The count above is not just theory. Across 125,391 deals between players at Mexico Club tables (mostly with Normal scoring), the caller made the bid 80.3% of the time. The most common winning bid was 6, in more than half of all deals, and it was made 84.9% of the time. Here is how often each bid was made, by the number of trumps in the caller’s final hand, after the talon and the discard:
| Trumps | Bid 5 | Bid 6 | Bid 7 | Bid 8–10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 trumps | 32.7% | 50.5% | 25.3% | 13.5% |
| 4 trumps | 72.2% | 78.0% | 64.8% | 41.5% |
| 5 trumps | 93.3% | 91.7% | 83.4% | 65.3% |
| 6 trumps | 99.5% | 98.1% | 92.6% | 76.5% |
| 7 trumps | — | 100% | 98.7% | 82.3% |
Two lessons stand out. First, the fourth and fifth trump are worth a lot: going from four to five trumps lifts a bid of 7 from 65% to 83%. On average the caller took 6.1 tricks with four trumps, 7.2 with five and 8.0 with six. Second, three trumps are not enough for anything above 5. Aces matter just as much:
| Aces | Bid 5 | Bid 6 | Bid 7 | Bid 8–10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No ace | 31.3% | 48.0% | 33.0% | 5.4% |
| 1 ace | 62.1% | 71.2% | 64.8% | 37.7% |
| 2 aces | 85.4% | 86.7% | 83.7% | 67.6% |
| 3 aces | 96.1% | 94.4% | 92.7% | 87.2% |
| 4 aces | 100% | 98.4% | 96.2% | 95.1% |
A bid of 8 or more with only one ace was made barely a third of the time. With two aces and five trumps you are on solid ground for 6 or 7. For the full set of numbers, see odds and statistics.
What the talon is worth
The caller turns up the two talon cards, adds them to the hand and throws any two cards away. With twelve cards to choose from you keep the best ten, so the talon can only make your hand better or leave it as it was. At Mexico Club tables, callers kept both talon cards 58.3% of the time and one of them 38.2% of the time; only 3.5% threw both away.
That does not make the talon a trick. Two low cards in a side suit improve nothing, and the opponents see what you picked up. A sensible habit: when you are torn between two bids, count the talon as half a trick. Never count it as the trick that makes your bid. The talon and trump article shows how to get the most out of the discard.
Position and the forced 5
The first player to speak must open with at least 5; saying NEXT is not allowed before any bid is on the table. That is why 5 is made less often than 6 or 7 at our tables (73.1% against 84.9% and 81.5%): many fives are forced openings with weak hands, not choices. If you open with a poor hand, do not panic. If someone raises, say NEXT and defend. If nobody does, play it out; with Easy scoring a fall costs only five points.
Speaking later is an advantage. You have heard the other bids, and a player who raised to 7 has told you that the strong cards are probably in that player’s hand. Once you have said NEXT you cannot come back into that auction, so think before you drop out with a hand that could still compete.
Three hands, three bids
Hand 1: the forced opening
One ace, a king and no long suit: about two tricks. You must open 5 anyway. If anyone says 6, say NEXT immediately; with this hand you are a Gangster who wants to help break the bid. If both players pass, you play 5 and hope the talon brings a long suit. At our tables, bids of 5 with no ace in the final hand were made only 31% of the time.
Hand 2: a solid six
Five trumps with the ace and king. The opponents hold three hearts (Q♥ 10♥ 7♥); if one of them has all three, the queen survives the ace and king and takes a trick, so count four or five trump tricks. Add the A♠ and half a trick for the K♦, and the singleton club lets you cut once the trumps are drawn. That is six to seven tricks. Bid 6 happily and 7 if you must. Callers with five trumps made a 6 almost 92% of the time.
Hand 3: honours without length
It looks strong: two aces, a king and queen together, four solid clubs. But the ace and king of trumps are missing, so the clubs will lose two tricks before they win two. Count: two trump tricks, two side aces, one diamond after the ace is gone. That is five. At our tables a bid of 6 without the ace or king of trumps was made only 62.6% of the time, against 91.4% with both. Open 5 if you are first; over someone else’s 6, say NEXT unless the scoring is Easy and the score sheet says you need to gamble.
How far to push: Easy and Normal scoring
When you make a bid you score about your bid, often a trick more. When you fall you lose the bid in Easy scoring (public tables and mini games) and twice the bid in Normal scoring (tournaments, and private rooms that choose it). A rough calculation follows from that:
- Easy: a bid pays off when you make it about half the time or more (around 48%).
- Normal: you need to make it about two times in three (around 65%) just to break even.
Compare that with the tables above. With four trumps, a 7 was made 64.8% of the time: a fair gamble in Easy, a break-even one in Normal. With five trumps, an 8 or higher was made 65.3% of the time: the same story one level up. The arithmetic ignores what you score as a Gangster when you pass, so in Normal scoring lean towards the lower bid.
Passing is not free in Normal scoring either. A Gangster who takes no trick loses the bid, and that happens often: 18% of Gangster seats took nothing against a 6, and 30% against a 7. If your hand has no trick at all, you would rather someone bid low.
The score matters. Near 51 a safe 6 that keeps you ahead is worth more than a risky 8. Far behind, a bold bid may be your only way back. Totals never go below zero, so a player on 3 points risks little by falling.
Next: when all ten tricks are in sight, should you take the talon and bid 10, or call Mexico?